17-Mar-2016
SODIC 4Q15: operating metrics continued to be strong; reported figures boosted by high deliveries
SODIC reported its 2015 financial results. Net contracted sales were EGP4.4 billion (+43.1% Y-o-Y, +7.3 vs. EFGe), driven by increased sales in Eastown Residence and Villette, which represented 63% of total net contracted sales. Sales in the West represented 21%, while that in the North Coast 16%. This implies EGP1.46 billion in net contracted sales in 4Q2015 (+37.9% Y-o-Y, +72.3% Q-o-Q). Cancellations continue to be low, averaging 5% in 2015, implying 3% in 4Q2015. Moreover, the strong momentum in cash collections was maintained, totaling EGP709 million in 4Q2015 (+25.3% Y-o-Y, +28.7% Q-o-Q) and EGP2.39 billion in 2015, up 16.9% Y-o-Y. Delinquencies averaged 5% in 2015 and 4Q2015. Reported numbers came in higher than expectations in 2015, on the back of higher than expected deliveries. A total of 721 units were delivered in 2015 (+47.1% Y-o-Y), of which 94% were in West Cairo. This implies 296 units in 4Q15 (+70.1% Y-o-Y, +96.0% Q-o-Q). Revenue grew by 7.7% to EGP1.47 billion, 12.9% above our estimate. Gross profit was EGP609 million, up 28.3%, 18% above our estimate, translating into a gross profit margin of 41.4% (2014: 34.8%, EFGe: 39.7%). Net income was EGP310 million, more than doubling Y-o-Y and 13% above our forecasted figure of EGP274 million. This implies strong reported figures for 4Q2015. Revenue was EGP581 million (+23.9% Y-o-Y, +90.5% Q-o-Q). Gross profit margin averaged 43.1% (4Q2014: 35.2%, 3Q2015: 37.6%). Net income was EGP78.2 million (+79.1% Y-o-Y, -0.3% Q-o-Q). The year closed with a net cash position of EGP847 million. We continue to be buyers of the name. The current market valuation for SODIC is unjustifiably low in our view, assigning zero value to the company’s planned future projects on its existing land bank, which we believe is unfair, given the company’s busy launch pipeline, active pursuit of new land plots, and strong brand name. We are yet to receive revised guidance from management on 2016 numbers. Our assumptions incorporate EGP4.1 billion in contracted sales for the year (-6% Y-o-Y). (Company disclosure, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros)