Saudi cement sector: Lift of export ban is likely to happen soon
The Saudi authorities are reported to have agreed upon allowing the export of cement, and thus lifting the current export ban, according to informed sources in the National Cement Committee speaking to Saudi newspaper, Al Eqtisadiah. Meetings are currently being organised between government authorities and representatives of the cement sector to decide on the criteria and timeline for starting the export process. Allowing exports would benefit those with idle capacity and located far from higher demand areas (western, central). It- would most benefit companies in the North (Northern, Al Jouf, Tabuk), South (Southern, Najran), followed by those in the East (Eastern, Saudi), in our view. Positives: i) Should improve sector utilisation; current excess supply and pressured demand has led some producers to halt production lines; and ii) Ease pressure on selling prices that witnessed a drop over the last two years (below SAR240/tonne price cap) on price wars. Challenges: i) Competition from regional markets with excess capacity; ii) Political tensions in main target markets (Yemen, Libya, Syria); and ii) sustainability of competitive edge, given 1) higher fuel cost post ease in fuel subsidy, as well as lack of fuel for new production lines; 2) likelihood that the government imposes export tariff or lower local price cap for exporters to offset the fuel subsidy. We will provide further analysis as soon as the new mechanism and time frame are set by the related parties. (Al Eqtisadiah, Tarek El-Shawarby)
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